Portfolio

Portfolio is a working model of investment decision-making under uncertainty.

It records the assumptions, models, and decisions that connect information to capital allocation. The repository is concerned with the quality of the decision process rather than short-term profit or loss alone.

Working loop

objective and constraints
  -> information and market state
  -> probabilistic beliefs
  -> price versus expected value
  -> portfolio and position sizing
  -> execution
  -> attribution
  -> model revision

The initial system model is documented in docs/investment-system.md.

Structure

• docs/ contains stable concepts and system descriptions.
• assumptions/ records falsifiable beliefs and their evidence.
• models/ describes models, inputs, outputs, and failure modes.
• decisions/ records consequential portfolio decisions and later attribution.
• cases/ contains time-bounded case studies and their evidence ledgers.

Current case

• Unitree IPO price discovery is the first cold-start attribution study. It separates public facts, deterministic derivations, competing explanations, and unresolved questions before any forecasting model is fitted.

This repository is for research and discussion. It is not investment advice, and it does not yet operate or recommend a live portfolio.